Welcome to the morning after Liberation Day
Southwest and Southside Virginia, I’m all about buying American—but I’m also a supporter of free trade when it’s actually free. Remember Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”? It promised self-balancing markets, but that’s a fairy tale now. Nations juice their output with cash—China pumps billions into steel (OECD data), while the U.S. pours billions into farm subsidies to outpace global growers (USDA figures).
Wages? NAFTA dropped the floor, and China sank it lower—cents to our bucks. It may level out eventually—India’s middle class is growing, and IT jobs there aren’t the steal they were a decade ago (World Bank stats).
Me? I’m fine with tariffs targeting countries that cheat—like dumping cheap steel—but the whole tariff mess? It’s a headache I’d rather skip. Why? Because NAFTA gutted our region, and we’re just starting to bounce back.
Will this move lift us? Maybe. But my advice? Buckle up for a long, drawn-out period of uncertainty. NAFTA was like going to the dentist and hearing the drill rev before it even starts. Rebuilding will take time. And while we try to claw our way back, we’ll likely see cuts to education, research, and healthcare.
Let’s be clear: I don’t expect—nor want—the government to pay my bills (I help fund theirs). But a truly great nation takes care of its sick, elderly, children, and people in need. And I worry some of those basics may be at risk.
Tariffs 101: The Hidden Hit
So, how do tariffs even work? Picture a truck of American beer – Bud Light for my MAGA friends, crossing into Mexico. They hit it with a 150% tariff – boom, import fee! A $5 brew balloons to $12.50 before it lands at the bar, spiking your weekend Bud in Cancun. The U.S. plays the same game – tariffs tag goods at the border, pitched as a shield for Virginia jobs or a poke at trade partners like Mexico. It’s a classic move; in 1789, tariffs were the government’s first cash haul, bankrolling everything from ships to ink. Now, they’re collected at customs, added to prices, and landing on your tab – not Mexico’s – every time you buy.
Who Pays? You Do!
That raises the big question: who’s really paying? China doesn’t cover the tariff. Mexico doesn’t either. Producers abroad? They’re doing just fine. It’s U.S. companies – like Walmart or their suppliers – who pay U.S. Customs at the port. A 2019 NBER study showed Trump’s China tariffs raised prices, and YOU felt it – dollar for dollar.
If a supplier pays an extra buck per widget, they’re not eating that cost—they pass it on. So now your $10 widget is $11. You chose the import, you carry the cost.
Where does that money go? Straight to the U.S. Treasury. And let’s be honest – we’ve seen how Congress spends money like a teenager with a credit card (no offense, teens). Both parties are guilty. If it’s used to balance the budget, great – but I’m not holding my breath. At some point, we really do need a Balanced Budget Amendment.
Counter: “Tariffs punish foreigners!” Nope. Importers pay, then it’s on YOU. Mexico’s only sweating because this may turn into a worldwide trade war.
Your Choice, Your Mirror
Now, let’s flip the coin: you’ve got options too. Walmart can buy local—and does, sometimes. Tyson chicken from Arkansas. Socks from North Carolina. U.S.-made goods are out there. Amazon even offers Ohio-made tools and Texas BBQ sauce.
But you’ve got a say. A $10 U.S.-made shirt or a $7 import? Do you grab the cheap one? Bet you do—most of us do.
The U.S. Department of Commerce confirms domestic goods exist—textiles, tools, furniture—but we chase savings. So is it tariffs, or is it our habits? Truth is, both play a part.
What kills me is, textiles and furniture were all produced locally before NAFTA. Can we really put Humpty Dumpty back together? I truly hope so.
Counter: “Tariffs push local sales!” Not really – stay high, so the switch isn’t tempting.
The Tax You Can’t Dodge
Speaking of costs, tariffs are YOUR tax, hidden in plain sight. Not listed at checkout—folded into the price. In 2022, they funneled $70 billion to the feds (USITC data). Who paid? YOU, every import you snagged—or didn’t. The government’s pocketing it; your budget’s taking the hit.
GOP’s Tax Twist
That cash grab ties into politics. In 1988, Bush Sr. vowed, “No new taxes!” The GOP stood for low taxes and Virginia pride. Now Trump’s piling on tariffs – 25% steel, 10% aluminum, heaps on China goods. YOU’RE paying, not Shanghai. They say it’s for jobs, but our history suggests a steeper price.
NAFTA’s Lasting Scar – No I Won’t Let It Go
Here’s where it gets personal for Southwest and Southside: NAFTA knocked us flat. Martinsville textiles? Done. Furniture plants? Hola, Mexico. Jobs vanished – Virginia Employment Commission tallied thousands lost by the early 2000s. That fed our opioid crisis – 2017 American Journal of Public Health links trade losses to overdoses here. Another “solution” costing YOU? I’m wary.
Prices That Won’t Quit
But do tariffs even deliver? Some argue they protect us – security, jobs. They might nudge production home or shift trade leverage. But prices? Steel tariffs in 2018 upped U.S. output – prices still rose 20% and held (St. Louis Fed). Washing machines? Up 12%, even with more made here (U. Chicago). Companies keep the gains, not you. Protection’s hollow when YOU’RE still stretched.
Counter: “Prices will ease!” Doubt it – profits trump discounts.
Liberation Day vs. Tax Cuts: Your Math Fails
Zooming to today, The Morning after Trump’s “Liberation Day” stacks more tariffs. The 2017 tax cuts handed you $1,300 (Tax Policy Center). Nice – until tariffs claw it back. China tariffs cost $800 yearly (NBER). Add 20% blanket tariffs—$1,700 per household (Moody’s Analytics). Your savings? Gone – you’re in the red.
Step Up, Not Back: Real Solutions
So, what’s the fix? America’s great – no question. I’d back tariffs to smack down unfair trade – like China’s steel dumping – but blanket taxing YOU while they shrug? No thanks. Walmart’s not eating that buck – YOU are, since you bought it. Ditch the broad tariff trap and go big: fund Additive Manufacturing with tax credits – 3D-printed parts could revive Southside factories. Boost Healthcare innovation – telemedicine jobs for rural Virginia. Push Robotics – automated plants could outpace Mexico’s cheap labor (Germany’s Industry 4.0 proves it, per World Economic Forum). Offer more free community college tech courses – upskill us now, not later. Tax breaks for businesses staying local could flip the script. We’re investing some, but not enough to lead. We’ve got the tools- let’s use them, Southwest and Southside.
Wrap-Up: Your Money, Your Move
Let’s tie it up: Tariffs may not save us, but they’re definitely taxing YOU – fair trade cheats or not. That $70 billion haul in 2022 (USITC)? Your cash.
Buying abroad often reflects weak competitive policy—or others simply outsmarting us—and tariffs don’t fix that. They pad profits while prices stick. Virginia’s hurt enough—NAFTA gutted us, and we’re still clawing our way back.
The answer isn’t more taxes; it’s bold moves: tech, skills, and smart incentives. Targeted tariffs on rule-breakers? I’m in. But broad tariffs hitting YOU? That’s a pass.
You’re not just a wallet—you’re the vote, the voice. Let’s play to win by investing more in job training and our people. For every tariff dollar collected, 50 cents should go to retooling and retraining, and the rest toward paying down debt—not expanding bloated government programs.
I’ll leave you a short video from Ferris Bueller’s Day off. Ben Stein make the case better than me.
What’s your play? Tell us below—should we tariff the cheats or transform ourselves? Let’s get loud.
Sources:
- OECD, China Steel Subsidies
- World Bank, India IT Wage Trends
- USDA, U.S. Farm Subsidies Data
- National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2019: “The Return of Tariffs”
- U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), 2022 Tariff Revenue
- Council on Foreign Relations, NAFTA Overview
- Virginia Employment Commission, Post-NAFTA Job Loss
- American Journal of Public Health, 2017: Trade & Opioids
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Steel Prices Post-2018
- University of Chicago, 2018 Washing Machine Study
- Tax Policy Center, 2018 Tax Cut Estimates
- Moody’s Analytics, Tariff Cost Projections
- World Economic Forum, Germany’s Industry 4.0
- U.S. Department of Commerce, Domestic Goods Data
- U.S. Trade Representative, Mexico Tariff Data (Beer)
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