I grew up in Southside, Virginia—Gretna, to be exact. I remember growing up to the sounds of textile mills humming and tractors in the fields. This region covers Danville, South Boston, Martinsville, and more. It has deep roots. Settled in the 1700s, it boomed with tobacco and farming. Fertile soil built its legacy. By the 20th century, manufacturing ruled. Textiles and furniture fueled busy towns. Then, in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) hit. It promised prosperity, but it broke us instead.
Rep. Richard Neal called fears “exaggerated” (Congressional Record, 1992). Many downplayed the damage. The Congressional Budget Office saw a mere 0.5% GDP gain while we lost 10,000 jobs (Economic Policy Institute, 2011). They misjudged Mexico’s wage advantage (U.S. International Trade Commission, 1993). Fixes flopped—only 30% of 1,200 retrained workers found good jobs (U.S. Department of Labor, 2000). Why dig up this history now? To remind leaders in Washington that they missed the mark on this one, and I’m worried that they haven’t learned from the mistake. Here’s the story, what could’ve helped, and what leaders must do now—plus a look beyond our borders.
Southside’s Rise and Fall: From Farms to Factories to Fallout
Southside began with agriculture. Tobacco dominated the 1800s. Danville was the “World’s Best Tobacco Market” by 1850 (Encyclopedia Virginia, 2020). Farms gave way to factories in the 20th century. Dan River Mills in Danville employed 14,000—huge for a city of 40,000 (Encyclopedia Virginia, 2020). Martinsville made furniture. South Boston sewed textiles. Families bought homes and sent kids to college (Moore, 2018). It was a golden age. Then NAFTA crashed in. Spearheaded in 1992 by George H.W. Bush, and signed into law by Bill Clinton – a large bipartisan effort. It cut tariffs with Canada and Mexico. The aim? Boost trade, drop prices. It worked nationally for a while. U.S.-Mexico trade reached $240 billion by 2010 (U.S. Trade Representative, 2010).
Southside didn’t fare so well. Dan River lost to Mexico’s cheap labor. Bankruptcy came in 2004. Its last plant shut in 2006, cutting 500 jobs after Gujarat Heavy Chemicals took over (Moore, 2018). Burlington Industries’ Hurt facility closed in 2007, losing 250 jobs (Virginia Business, 2021). South Boston’s Sara Lee plant shut down in 2008, part of a 7,000-job global cut (godanriver.com, 2008). Martinsville’s Tultex shed 1,000 jobs by 1999 (Economic Policy Institute, 2011). Bassett Furniture slashed hundreds in Stanleytown.
The Lane Company, a furniture giant in Altavista, folded under NAFTA’s pressure too—its plants shuttered as production shifted south, costing hundreds more jobs by the late 1990s. Unemployment spiked. Henry County hit 14.5% in 2001—triple the U.S. 4.7% average (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2001). Halifax County trailed close. Stores shut down. Danville’s downtown lost 20% of business by 2005 (Martinsville Chamber of Commerce, 2005). Henry County’s budget dropped 8% from 1995-2005. Schools and roads suffered.
A Brain Drain Hits Home
Job losses stung. I watched friends and families leave. Danville’s population fell 13% from 1990 to 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2010). South Boston lost 11% by 2009 (enformeva.com, 2023). The 25-34 age group dropped 25% by 2005 (Virginia Employment Commission, 2005). Young people fled to Richmond or Raleigh. NAFTA offered retraining. It helped 1,200 by 2000 (U.S. Department of Labor, 2000), but only 30% landed decent local jobs. Most took low-wage work or left.
Despair grew heavy. Henry County’s overdose deaths rose from 5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 18 by 2015. That beat Virginia’s 12 (Virginia Department of Health, 2015). Halifax County saw the same trend. A 2021 study links 1,000 job losses to a 2.7% rise in opioid deaths (NIH.GOV). Nationally, factory declines spiked opioid prescriptions by 10% (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017).
Beyond Southside: NAFTA’s Mixed Bag—and China’s Double Whammy
While Southside hurt, Northern Virginia’s tech scene thrived. Fairfax County’s GDP climbed 3% yearly by 2000. AOL tapped Canada’s market (Virginia Economic Development Partnership, 2005). Hampton Roads’ ports gained 15% in trade by 2010 (U.S. Trade Representative, 2010). Some say NAFTA paid off—cheaper goods and a 0.5% GDP bump (Congressional Budget Office, 1993). Mexico added 500,000 manufacturing jobs by 2000 (U.S. International Trade Commission). Then China landed a second blow.
After joining the WTO in 2001, China’s cheaper labor—below Mexico’s $1/hour—lured more jobs. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. textile imports from China soared 400% by 2010. Southside lost another 5,000 jobs (Virginia Economic Development Partnership, 2005). I love free markets when they’re fair. This wasn’t. It was a rigged game of trade and cheap labor—NAFTA’s sequel, only worse. Critics blame automation for 87% of U.S. factory losses (MIT Center for Economic Performance, 2016). Maybe, but why didn’t the U.S. focus on high-tech manufacturing here? Southside bled again.
Did They See It Coming?
Not likely, Clinton pitched a $5 billion trade surplus. It landed by 1998 (U.S. Trade Representative, 1998). Virginia’s Rep. Lewis Payne and senators agreed (Moore, 2018). Neal dismissed job worries (Congressional Record, 1992). Southside’s $10/hour wages lost to Mexico’s $1/hour (U.S. International Trade Commission, 1993). Why did economists bungle this? They banked on trickle-down gains—exports would save us, they said. CBO’s rosy 0.5% GDP forecast ignored rural losses (1993). They missed China’s looming shadow, too. Opioids weren’t on their minds. Addiction data came later.
Could It Have Been Different?
Hindsight offers answers. Southside could’ve been spared. Here’s how:
- Tech Boost: A $50 million grant in 1994 might’ve turned Danville into a tech hub. North Carolina’s Research Triangle added 50,000 jobs by 2000. U.S. Route 29 links Greensboro and Lynchburg—ripe for IBM (Moore, 2018).
- Smarter Trade Rules: Requiring 80% U.S. content could’ve saved 20% of Dan River’s jobs.
- Better Retraining: Training 2,000 for emerging jobs in high-tech manufacturing might have worked, beating NAFTA’s 70% flop rate (U.S. Department of Labor, 2000).
- Mental Health Support: A $2 million fund in 2000 could’ve added four clinics in Henry County. CDC models show this would have accounted for 15% drop in overdoses.
We did none of this. Southside suffered.
Working on a Brighter Tomorrow
Thanks to the efforts of some incredible local leaders we have started to turn the corner. The U.S. Navy celebrated the formal opening of its Additive Manufacturing Center of Excellence (AM CoE) at the Institute for Advanced Learning and Research (IALR) campus in Danville in 2022. Why? The Navy needs an additional 8,000 to 10,000 workers each year for the next 10 years to build the new Columbia-class nuclear submarine, and they are counting on us to help train workers.
Companies like Eastman Performance Films, Comfort Systems USA, Intertape Polymer Group, and others have collectively invested millions of dollars in the local economy and created thousands of jobs. That’s where GO TEC comes in. GO TEC is a talent pathway initiative that introduces middle school students to the strategic sectors of Healthcare Technologies, Automation & Robotics, IT Coding & Networking, Precision Machining, Metrology, Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Manufacturing, Welding, Precision Agriculture and Energy. This is an incredible program helping to provide opportunities for our students across the region. If your school doesn’t have GO TEC, they are missing a golden opportunity to help their students and our region.
Microporous, a battery company, plans to invest $1.3 billion dollars and bring more than 2,000 jobs to Pittsylvania County. It will be the first major tenant at the Southern Virginia Megasite at Berry Hill, this effort is the culmination of a plan by economic development officials a decade in the making. This can’t come fast enough with the planned layoffs at Goodyear.
Why have these efforts worked? In a word visionaries. One of the early problems identified by the business community was the need to create a robust affordable fiber optic network. Most folks don’t realize that the first piece of the network was a fiber run from Gretna to Danville. Today this network covers all of Southside Virginia and its tentacles go into many other parts of Virginia. The dream was to create a major interstate highway of fiber that anyone could get at highly competitive rates. Did it work? One of the early success stories of this project was Microsoft locating in Boydton. While some folks in the community may not like the idea of a data center, the Boydon project is huge and scheduled to get bigger, creating more jobs and tax revenue for the region.
These efforts are a good start, but we still need more.
Consideration for Today’s Leaders
Southside still needs help now. Policymakers consider investing in our people and region:
- Invest in Jobs: Spend $100 million over five years on additional advanced manufacturing opportunities. Focus on more robotics and additive manufacturing in Danville and Martinsville. Use USMCA rules—75% North American content—to keep 80% of jobs local by 2030. I love the work we are doing for the Navy but what about other industries? We have the infrastructure and, we just need additional companies.
- Train Workers: Start a $20 million program led by Virginia Tech, partnering with Liberty University, Averett University, Danville Community College, Patrick & Henry Community College, University of Lynchburg, Longwood University, and Virginia State University. Train 10,000 Southside residents by 2030 in high-tech manufacturing, automation, and cyber security. GO TECH is a great start but we can do more.
- Improve Infrastructure: Connect training hubs in Danville, South Boston, Martinsville, Lynchburg, and Farmville via U.S. Routes 29, 58, 220, and 460. For heaven’s sake, Richmond, help us with U.S. 220 road improvements from Stanleytown to Martinsville. North Carolina is running circles around us in terms of infrastructure.
- Fight Opioids: Fund $5 million yearly for four mental health clinics. Cover Henry, Pittsylvania, and Halifax Counties. Hire 25 counselors by 2026. Cut overdose rates by 20% in five years.
While we may be on the road to recovery, we can’t repeat NAFTA’s error. Leaders must find ways to shield and invest in rural areas like Southwest and Southern Virginia so we can continue to recover and grow.
Wrapping Up: A Lesson We Can’t Ignore
There is a singer in Farmville, Virginia, named Oliver Anthony. He nailed it in a song called “Rich Men North of Richmond.” For our region, I would change it to the Rich Leaders North of Farmville (to include Richmond). Some leaders find it hard to believe there is a world beyond the Golden Crescent of Virginia (NOVA, Richmond and Tidewater) . To our elected leaders including the 5th District’s Representative, Virginia’s two U.S. Senators, The State Senator for District 9 and Southside Delegate for District 49, and the Governor: You represent us. We need more help and action, not rhetoric. You may not have created this mess but it’s on your watch now and we are counting on you to help with the recovery.
Consider crafting a five-year plan for onshoring more high-tech manufacturing—think semiconductors and robotics to our region. Leverage our skilled workers, vacant plants, and inexpensive resources. Invest in rebuilding factories. Train 10,000 locals in advanced skills.
Never forget how NAFTA pledged prosperity, but it brought nothing but pain to Southside Virginia. It wiped out 10,000 jobs. It drained our towns and helped fuel the opioid crisis. When China doubled down on manufacturing, it bled us even drier.
Our elected leaders missed the signs 30 plus years ago. Planning could have saved us then, and action will save us now. Southside’s story – our story – shows the cost to communities when Washington misses the mark. Thank heaven we have proactive local leaders investing in the future but we can’t do it alone.
Comments, feedback and suggestions are always encouraged.
References
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